By VICTOR SKINNER
THE CENTER SQUARE CONTRIBUTOR
(The Center Square) — A new Civiqs poll claims the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina is tied up between Republican U.S. Rep. Ted Budd and Democrat Cheri Beasley, contradicting numerous recent polls, including one released the same day, that favor Rep. Budd.
The Civiqs poll released Wednesday of 674 likely North Carolina voters conducted Oct. 29 to Nov. 2 shows Rep. Budd and Ms. Beasley tied at 49%, with 1% undecided and a margin of error of 4.9%, the highest error margin of the last four polls on the race.
Civiqs reports 48% of those polled had an unfavorable opinion of Ms. Beasley, while 47% were favorable and 5% were unsure. Those figures compare to 43% who said they view Rep. Budd favorably, 49% who hold an unfavorable opinion and 7% who were unsure.
The topline results conflict with numerous recent polls, including one released by Emerson College the same day, that show Rep. Budd with a statistically significant lead, with a smaller margin of error.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 very likely voters conducted Oct. 27-29 found 50% support Rep. Budd, and 45% support Ms. Beasley, with 2% undecided and a 3% margin of error.
The Emerson poll showed Rep. Budd’s support up four percentage points from September, and Ms. Beasley’s support up two percentage points.
“Since last month, Budd has maintained his 16-point lead among male voters, whereas Beasley’s nine-point lead among women voters has shrunk to a four point lead,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Rep. Budd was viewed favorably by 53% of voters and unfavorably by 40% in the Emerson survey, compared to 48% who viewed Ms. Beasley unfavorably and 46% who have a favorable opinion about her.
The Emerson poll is among four since Oct. 17 with a maximum margin of error of 4.2% that show Rep. Budd with at least a four-point lead. The Real Clear Politics average of those polls gives Rep. Budd 49.3% support among likely voters, compared to 44.3% for Ms. Beasley.
The Emerson poll also aligns with others in recent weeks regarding the issues voters care about most, with the economy topping the list for 41% of North Carolina voters, followed by abortion for 13%, healthcare for 10%, and “threats to democracy” with 10%.
While the Civiqs poll seems to be an outlier for the U.S. Senate race, results on voter enthusiasm more closely match recent surveys.
Eighty-one percent of those who responded to the Civiqs poll said they were very enthusiastic about voting next week, while 12% were somewhat enthusiastic.
In a Meredith Poll released Tuesday, 87% of respondents said they are likely to vote, with over 70% of both Democrats and Republicans indicating they were very likely to vote.
