Crist campaign calls latest poll an ‘outlier’
By BETHANY BLANKLEY
THE CENTER SQUARE CONTRIBUTOR
(The Center Square) – Democratic gubernatorial candidate Nikki Fried is leading U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist just a week out from the primary election, according to a new University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll.
The poll was conducted among 1,624 registered voters from Aug. 8-12 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%.
Registered voters who identified as Democrats were asked who they’d vote for in the Aug. 23 primary election among the Democratic nominees for governor and U.S. Senate. About 47% said they’d vote for Ms. Fried; 43% said they’d vote for Mr. Crist. Cadance Daniel received 4% support; Robert Willis, 1%; 6% said they didn’t know who they were voting for or didn’t answer the question.
“Fried seems to have reversed the eight-point lead that Crist had when we asked registered Democrats about vote choice in February,” Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF professor of political science, said in a statement. “It’s possible that the overturning of Roe v. Wade changed the make-up of this race and has particularly energized women that are almost 20 points more likely to vote for her.”
Mr. Crist’s campaign cited a different poll published by Change Research that indicates that he’d beat Ms. Fried by 10 points: 47% to 37%.
His campaign issued a statement, saying, “The UNF poll is clearly an outlier. Between public polls and our own internal polls, Nikki Fried at this stage of the race has no path to victory barring a black swan event. And her team also knows that.”
According to the University of North Florida poll, half of participants said they’d vote for Gov. Ron DeSantis if the election were held today: 50% said they’d vote for Gov. DeSantis, 43% for Ms. Fried.
If the race were held between Gov. DeSantis and Mr. Crist, 50% said they’d vote for Gov. DeSantis; 42% for Mr. Crist.
According to a RealClear Politics average, Gov. DeSantis leads both Ms. Fried and Mr. Crist by 9.6% and 6.2%, respectively.
“Fried and Crist are trailing behind DeSantis in head-to-heads,” Dr. Binder added, “but both potential matchups are much closer than they were when we polled registered voters in February, when DeSantis was up by over 20 percentage points. It is important to keep in mind that these are registered voters, and Republicans are generally more likely to turn out in November.”
When it came to the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, 80% said they’d vote for Val Demings, according to the University of North Florida poll. William Sanchez and Brian Rush each received 4% of the vote; Ricardo de la Fuente received 2%; 10% said they didn’t know who they were voting for or didn’t answer the question.
In a match-up between Val Demings and incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, 48% said they’d vote for Mr. Demings; 44% for Mr. Rubio.
However, according to a RealClear Politics average, Mr. Rubio leads Demings by 5.8%.
According to Transparency USA, Gov. DeSantis has outraised all of his opponents by more than tenfold. He’s raised $140.5 million and spent $13.7 million compared to Mr. Crist’s $11.7 million and Ms. Fried’s $2.4 million.
The primary election is Aug. 23. Early voting is already underway.
