Storms in Montecito: Then and now

This week was less severe than the 2018 debris flow; fire chief says debris basin improvements helped

Exactly five years after the Jan. 9, 2018 debris flow, another storm hit Montecito.

But to everyone’s relief, the storm on Monday and Tuesday of this week paled in comparison to the 2018 disaster.

The recent storm claimed no lives and caused no injuries, and damages were less severe than that caused by the 2018 storm. 

The 1/9/2018 debris flow began at approximately 4 a.m. while the Thomas Fire was still burning in the back country and a high intensity rain began. In just five minutes, 0.89 inch of rain fell, which triggered a debris flow in the community that caused the loss of 23 lives and damaged or destroyed more than 500 properties, according to Montecito Fire Chief Kevin Taylor.

Among the 23 lives lost in the debris flow were David and Jack Cantin, husband and son respectively, of Kim Cantin. The Cantins’ daughter, Lauren Cantin, who was buried in mud, was rescued by Montecito firefighters, who, along with other first responders, were praised as heroes in the community.

This week, first responders again worked to protect residents. But fortunately, the recent storms were less severe than the one that hit on Jan. 9, 2018.

This time around, the damage “is limited to a handful of roadways and full debris basins and only three homes with minor flooding,” Chief Taylor told the News-Press.

A much different story than five years ago.

Since Jan. 9, 2018, there has been community education, preparation and coordination between the Montecito Fire Department and the Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s office as well as coordination between the fire departments on the South Coast, according to Chief Taylor.

The News-Press asked Chief Taylor how the experience with the 2018 disaster helped efforts to prepare for the recent storm.

“We were not overly prepared, I don’t think it is possible to be overly prepared. The term I would use is appropriately prepared,” Chief Taylor said.

 “On Jan. 9, 2023, the community suffered a debris-laden flood,” he said. “The flood control system worked as designed with no loss of life and minor property damage.”

One of the most visible signs of damage from the storm early this week is the major damage to East Mountain Drive, shown in the photo with this story.

“East Mountain Drive is still closed and will likely require several months’ worth of repairs,” said Chief Taylor.

The News-Press spoke with local experts and officials about the comparison between the current storm and the 2018 debris flow.

“The Montecito debris flow was in its own category and should not be compared for reservoir levels. It was bone dry prior to the arrival of very intense 5-30 minute rainfall that caused the debris flow in 2018,” Eric Boldt, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Oxnard, told the News-Press. “Storm totals with that particular storm were in the range of 2-4 inches and really did not create any flows at all into the reservoirs. It normally takes a solid 10-15 inches of rain in the watershed to begin to have runoff into the reservoirs.” 

Since the Jan. 9, 2018 debris flow, improvements have been made that likely minimized the damage caused by the recent storm. 

“Construction was completed in the fall of 2022 on the Randall Road debris basin,”  Lael Wageneck, the public information officer for the Santa Barbara County Public Works Department, told the News-Press. “This project dates back to the Thomas Fire and 1/9 debris flow when community members expressed support for a new debris basin. The project was approved in August 2020, and construction on the $21.3 million project — the largest debris basin in Montecito, began in May 2021.

“The project was funded by a FEMA $13.5 million Hazard Mitigation Program Grant and a state $4.5 million Community Development Block Grant,” Mr. Wageneck said.

On Friday, crews, assisted by the National Guard, continued to clear out debris from the new basin in anticipation of this weekend’s rain.

In addition to the new basin, “the Santa Barbara County Flood Control District modified three South County debris basins and is in the planning and design phase for two others,” Mr. Wagenceck said. “The modifications improve sediment processes while still providing flood protection and debris control for large storm events.

“Three basins (Maria Ygnacio Main Branch, East Branch and Romero Creek) have already been successfully modified,” he said. “Modification work on the Cold Springs Basin is planned for 2023 and on San Ysidro in 2024.”

Mr. Wageneck also spoke to how the improvements helped with preparation for the recent storm.

“The Randall Road Debris Basin received an estimated 30,000-50,000 cubic yards of material. Had that basin not been there, that material would have traveled down into the community below (State Route) 192,” he said. “All of the basins in the burn area reached or nearly reached capacity. While there has been some damage to the roads in the area and multiple closures, the basins did their job by preventing large material from traveling further down the creeks.”

Mr. Wageneck told the News-Press that occurring today would be a water release of 2,000 cubic feet per second from Lake Cachuma. 

Local experts spoke to concerns about Lake Cachuma spilling over, especially going into the rainy months of February and March.

 “When Lake Cachuma starts to spill it will raise the river level. However, there is plenty of room to accommodate more water flow if it remains in the lower thousands (cfs),” Mr. Boldt of the National Weather Service told the News-Press.
“The forecasts for February and March remain favorable for below normal precipitation totals and with a week of more of dry weather, the flows in the river will be back to baseline levels,” said Mr. Boldt. 

Noted Mr. Wageneck, “We are doing everything we can to maximize water supply while protecting communities downstream from flooding. It’s incredibly beneficial for the five agencies that take water from Cachuma. Last year, no new water was allocated to them from Cachuma. The lake was down to 30% full, and things looked rather dire.

“So obviously, filling the lake makes a big difference in the short-term water supply for those agencies,” he continued. “It’s still very early in the rainy season, our three rainiest months are ahead of us, and now we are coming into those months with a full reservoir. So we will be vigilant about the storms coming in and try to ensure they don’t lead to flooding downstream.

“With this last storm, the lake had a buffer because the lake was at 33% capacity. But it won’t have that buffer with the lake now at 100% capacity. When this happens, we release water before or during storms to make space for the new water,” said Mr. Wageneck. 

The following are the current reservoir levels as of 5:20 p.m. Friday:

— Alisal: 600 feet; 2,380.00 acre-feet and 34.39 inches of rainfall for the year in total. Cachuma Reservoir is at 86.8% capacity, at 744.48 feet and 167,588 acre-feet, and 19.32 inches of rainfall in total for the year. Gibraltar: 95.6% capacity 1399.08 feet, 4,488 acre feet; 32.20 inches of rainfall for the year in total,  and an outflow of 876 CFS (cubic feet per second); Jameson: 100.9% capacity, 2,224.36 feet. 4,893 acre feet, and 37.53 inches of rainfall in total for the year. 

Today’s forecast is a 50% chance of rain at night and 100% chance during the day with a low of 51 and a high of 60. Sunday is expected to be mostly cloudy with 100% chance of rain at night and 80% chance during the day with a low of 47 and a high of 60.

Monday is a 90% chance of rain at night and 50% chance during the day with a low of 45 degrees and a high of 59. Tuesday is partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain at night and a 10% chance during the day with a low of  44 and a high of 60.

email: kzehnder@newspress.com